Andre Ethier had a solid 2007 for the Dodgers, (his OPS just breaking the .800 mark) a season after finishing 5th in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. The Dodgers acquired Ethier, who had just been named the Texas League MVP, in 2005 from the Oakland Athletics for ticking time bomb Milton Bradley. But this story is not about Ethier’s gain so much as it is about who is not starting.

That would be Juan Pierre. The same Juan Pierre who made $7,500,000 for the Dodgers in 2007 in the first year of 5-year, $45 million contract signed the offseason before. What’s not to like about Pierre? A Spanish first name. A French last name. Yet he is a black American from the South. He looks like a kid and plays the game with the same passion. He would fit in perfectly on the teams between The Wars with his baggy uniform and floppy cap as well as his stolen bases and bunts for hits.

He just isn’t a $9 million per season player.

Any sabermatician will point out that Pierre finished in the top 3 in the NL in outs made for five straight seasons. Well, part of that is because he is a leadoff hitter who gets more at bats than the others, but the reality is that he is a leadoff hitter who got on base just 33% of the time last season and his slugging percentage looks an awful lot like his batting average.

Many thought that Pierre would be the starter to showcase him for a possible trade. Or at least to avoid the embarassment of having a $9 million per season benchwarmer.

Ethier made $387,500 in 2007 and will make a similar figure this season.

So what did the Dodgers do this offseason? They signed a power hitter who slugged .413 last season and struck out 138 times. Oh, and Andruw Jones has lost a step defensively, too. His is only a two-year contract, but worth $36 million.

Including budding star Matt Kemp, that leaves the Dodgers with four outfielders who should be starters at the Major League level.

It is becoming a developing trend throughout MLB to let youngsters (and their pre-arbitration eligible salaries) play over over-priced veterans, but the Los Angeles Dodgers’ best offseason acquisition leading into the 2008 season may very well be Joe Torre. Torre’s most important attribute as manager has always been his ability to manage the egos that get in the way of winning baseball games. Ask Yankee fans. Torre never hesitated to drop Paul O’Neill in the lineup. Or sit Bernie Williams. Or jerk Roger Clemens in a playoff game before he was eligible for the win. Or pull Mike Mussina from the rotation. The Dodgers and Joe Torre will put a millionaire on the bench in favor of a 26-year old, but the Los Angeles Dodgers will be a better and deeper team for it.

UPDATE:  Juan Pierre did not play in the Dodgers’ opener, ending his consecutive games played streak at 434 games.

Major League Baseball will break the attedance and revenue records established a year ago. In 2007, seven of the eight playoff teams did not make the postseason the year before; in 2008, the reciprocal will happen: the Braves will be the only new team in this year’s playoffs, supplanting the Arizona Diamondbacks. Major League Baseball’s youth movement will be a huge story. The races between the top two teams in each American League division will be incredible. The National League will be a free-for-all crap shoot. The parity of that league is remarkable. Ten of the 16 NL teams will still be in playoff contention when the trading deadline passes. Here are the picks:

1. AL East: Boston Red Sox. They are simply too good, too deep, and too balanced not to repeat as AL East Champs. Expect a monster year from Manny. David Ortiz will have another top 5 AL MVP season. The Tampa Bay Rays will finish above .500 for the first time in the history of their franchise.

2. AL Central: Cleveland Indians. The Tigers have received the publicity this offseason, but the Indians tied for the MLB lead in wins last season and nearly defeated the Red Sox in the playoffs. Expect a huge year from Travis Haffner.

3. AL West: Anaheim Angels. John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar start the season on the disabled list, but this team is too deep not to win the division. Francisco Rodriguez will finish in the top ten of the AL MVP Voting.

4. AL Wild Card: New York Yankees. A-Rod will have another monster year and Robinson Cano will win the AL Batting Title, but the trio of Chamberlain, Hughes, and Kennedy will get the Yanks back in the playoffs.

5. American League Pennant: Boston Red Sox. Josh Beckett proved his dominance when he went head to head with C.C. Sabathia in last year’s ALCS and he wins another pennant for Boston in 2008.

6. AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez. David Ortiz finishes a close 2nd, but doesn’t lose but his lack of defense, but because A-Rod steals 20 bags. Travis Haffner gets back in the top 10. Magglio Ordonez stays there. So does Vlad.

7. AL Cy Young: Erik Bedard. Bedard feasts on a better team in a weaker division. Fausto Carmona is a close 2nd. Beckett’s time on the disabled list costs him.

8. AL Rookie of the Year: Ian Kennedy. The Yankees won’t baby him and he will eat innings and win plenty of games in the fifth spot of the Yanks’ rotation. Evan Longoria, Joba Chamberlain, and Jacoby Ellsbury are all close.

9. AL Manager of the Year: Eric Wedge. The Indians’ manager goes back to back for this award by beating the Tigers for the AL Central Crown.

10. NL East: Philadelphia Phillies. Their lineup is simply too good. The Mets fall two game short this year and they lose the head-to-head matchups with Philadelphia and Atlanta.

11. NL Central: Chicago Cubs. Their lineup is simply too talented. The Brewers will be close again, but no cigar. Houston and Cincinnati each make a push in this weak division.

12. NL West: Colorado Rockies. The Rockies ride their 2007 postseason to a dominating 2008 season.

13. NL Wild Card: Atlanta Braves. Bobby Cox cheers his Braves on to a wild win in the NL. The NL East plays out like the NL West of a year ago, with three teams within two games of the division title. Chipper Jones and Mark Teixeira have huge years. Yunel Escobar becomes a very familiar name.

14. National League Pennant: Philadelphia Phillies. The Phils beat Colorado in a seven game thriller.

15. NL MVP: Matt Holliday. He put up bigger numbers than Jimmy Rollins in 2007, but leaves no doubt this year. Chase Utley comes in 2nd. Chipper Jones and Mark Teixeira both finish in the top 10. David Wright finishes top 5.

16. NL Cy Young: Cole Hamels. Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, and Johan Santana are all close.

17. NL Rookie of the Year: Jair Jurrjens. Jurrjens wins 15 games for the Wild Card-winning Braves. Homer Bailey finishes 2nd.

18. NL Manager of the Year: Clint Hurdle. The Rockies manager earns the award for leading the NL in wins.

19. All-Star Game Winning Team: American League. The All-Star game will be in Yankee Stadium this year. It is also the final season for The House That Ruth Built.

20. All-Star Game MVP: Grady Sizemore. A homer and a stolen base and a diving catch will do the trick.

21. World Series Champion: Boston Red Sox. It may take them more than four games this time, but Boston celebrates a World Series for the third time in five years.

22. World Series MVP: Jonathan Papelbon. Boston’s closer saves three games and wins another to clinch another title.

Tiebreaker: How many homeruns will A-Rod hit in 2008? 51. A-Rod is a batting title away from the Triple Crown in ‘08.

  Lou Piniella named Kerry Wood as the team’s closer for the 2008 season.  Of course, Carlos Marmol seems the better choice for the Chicago Cubs.  The battle to be the Cubs’ 9th inning guy was dicussed here, with Marmol receiving the voters’ mandate.  Wood’s stuff is still incredible, but his makeup is prime for meltdown as a closer, probably the most pressure packed role in MLB.  Piniella also named Ryan Dempster, the club’s closer for the past three seasons, as the number three starter.  Someone in the organization finally figured out that a starter other than Rich Hill (preferably a right-hander) should follow Ted Lilly in the rotation, since they are both lefties who feature an 89-91 mph fastball to set up a big overhand curveball.  The Cubs also signed recently-released Reed Johnson to platoon in the outfield, probably to sit Felix Pie versus lefties.

At some point, you can’t blame an organization’s failures on a curse.  It’s been 100 years since the Chicago Cubs last won a World Series.  That’s a rough century.  Remember the Florida Marlins began in 1993 and have won two World Series titles since their establishment.

Maybe Kerry Wood will evolve into a fine closer.  Or maybe Cubs fans will be left heartbroken again.

  After the Twins traded Johan Santana, it looked like Joe Nathan would be next.  However, the Twins and Nathan have agreed to a four-year deal worth $47 million.  The Twins hold a $12.5 million option for 2012.  The Twins originally acquired Nathan in one of the bigger steals in recent trade history.  They traded A.J. Pierzynski to the Giants for Nathan, Francisco Liriano, and Boof Bonser.  Nathan was a simple set up man for the Giants, but immediately became one of the best closers in the game as a Twin.  The Giants didn’t care for Pierzynski and released him following his one season in San Francisco. 

Mariano Rivera is the best of his generation and a first ballot Hall of Famer with his extensive body of work.  Since he is the measuring stick, check out Joe Nathan’s comparison in the four seasons he has been a closer.  This isn’t to say that Nathan is a Hall of Famer as well, but his prowess is worth noting since Nathan’s pinstripes don’t quite receive the attention that Rivera’s do.

A win in April is worth just as much in the standings as a win in September. If any of these players missed any time for their respective teams vying for one last playoff spot, it would make huge news. But these teams could get off to slow starts to their 2008 campaigns because a major component will start the season on the disabled list. Divisions certainly are not won in the first month, but they can be lost with an especially bad start out of the gate.

Curtis Granderson, Detroit. The Tigers’ centerfielder will miss the first two weeks of the season due to a broken middle finger on his right hand. He was hit by a pitch in a March 22 spring training game. Tigers fans should hope the injury doesn’t hinder his swing when he returns.  Brandon Inge, a catcher turned into a third baseman, will likely be the Tigers’ opening day centerfielder.

Josh Beckett, Boston. The Red Sox ace should probably miss only one start due to the weird schedule that Boston opens with, but his arm may not be conditioned when he is scheduled to return on April 4.

Brad Lidge, Philadelphia. The Phillies’ new closer will miss at least the first five games for the defending NL East champs, but like the other pitchers on this list, questions remain about arm conditioning since the time for that (spring training) was lost.

John Smoltz, Atlanta. The Braves’ ace is the face of their esteemed franchise, but at 40 years old, recovering from an injury is much more difficult than for a younger player. Smoltz will miss only one start because the Braves are allowed to retroactivate the date when the decision was made to put him disabled list, but he must return soon, because the Braves have no chance without him in 2008.

Moises Alou, New York. While Moises Alou is as injury prone as they come, his absence will certainly affect the Mets.  Alou is a career .303/.369/.517 hitter.  His likely replacement, Angel Pagan, is a career .255/.306/.415 hitter.  Alou has a hernia that will keep him sidelined 4-6 weeks or until around mid-May.

   John Lackey, Anaheim.  The Angels ace will be out until at least mid-May because of a strained triceps.  Lackey will miss at least seven or eight starts and his absence could put the Angels in an early hole in the AL West.  Lackey finished 3rd in the AL Cy Young voting in 2007.

  Kelvim Escobar, Anaheim.  Lackey’s sidekick has inflammation in his shoulder and is hoping to be back in May.  Escobar won 18 games a year ago, but it already looks doubtful that mark is repeated in 2008.  Seattle’s duo of Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez may seize this opportunity and start fast in the AL West.

  Andy Pettitte, New York.  The Yankees’ reliable lefty, Andy Pettitte, may only miss a few starts at most, but New York needs their veteran to stabilize a young and inexperienced staff.  The Yankees charged in the second half in 2007 to win the wild card and make the playoffs, but they lost the division (and their streak) to Boston in April.

  Nomar Garciaparra, Los Angeles.  Garciaparra has always been injury prone.  Andy LaRoche, who was expected to compete with Garciaparra for the Dodgers’ third base job, tore ligaments in his thumb and is on the disabled list himself.  Nomar will go on the 15-day disabled list because of a broken bone in his hand caused by a hit by pitch.  The Dodgers will have to use a minor leaguer with little or no MLB experience as his replacement.

  Jeff Kent, Los Angeles.  Kent has a strained hamstring and will go on the 15-day disabled list.  It is retroactive, meaning he’ll only miss five or six games to start the year, but the Dodgers will need Kent in the middle of their lineup to compete in the NL West.  He led the team with 20 homeruns in 2007.

The Boston Red Sox and Oakland Athletics open the season in Tokyo at 5:05 AM (central standard time).  As documented here, they’ll each play three more spring training games before resuming this four-game series. 

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Baseball is back.  All of the divisions have been previewed and all the 2008 team outlooks have been profiled.  It’s time for 2008 predictions.

AL WEST                                        AL CENTRAL                                        AL EAST

NL WEST                                        NL CENTRAL                                        NL EAST

Check out the divisions and then fill out your 2008 predictions if you haven’t already.  Here is the link:  http://thebigleaguebeat.com/2008/02/28/2008-prediction-contest/Thebigleaguebeat’s 2008 predictions will be made on or before April 1.

Miguel Cabrera will soon sign a 8-year, $152.3 million contract extension to be a Detroit Tiger through the year 2016.  It’s being billed as the fourth-largest contract in MLB history, though if Johan Santana’s options are picked up, the Mets will eventually pay their lefty around $175 million.  Cabrera’s conract is the largest in Tigers’ history though, doubling the total sum of Magglio Ordonez’s five year, $75 million contract signed in 2005. 

Some players need time to develop.  Not Miguel Cabrera, apparently.  He hit a walkoff homerun in his first Major League game at age 20.  Then he hit four homeruns in the Marlins’ 2003 postseason run to a World Series victory.  Unlike what so oftentimes happens when a new kid makes a splash at the Big League level, Cabrera wasn’t a flash in the pan.  See Shane Spencer, Kevin Maas, and to an extent, Andruw Jones for aforementioned splashes.  Cabrera is averaging just over 31 homeruns, 115 RBIs, and has a career batting average of .313 through his first four full seasons in the Majors.  He will turn 25 years old in the third week of the 2008 season.

Miguel Cabrera is reminiscent of Manny Ramirez.  Their swings and perceived offbeat personalities are very similar.  Also interesting is the fact that each of these players will be first ballot Hall of Famers without ever winning a Most Valuable Player award.  (Juan Gonzalez won two MVP Awards but won’t be a Hall of Famer).  Cabrera is not quite the hitter Ramirez is now, though he could develop a bit more power and he will certainly drive in more runs in this potent Tigers’ lineup.  However, the most likely scenario is that Cabrera will have at least ten more seasons like he has been having:  somewhere around .325 batting average, 35 homeruns, and 120 runs batted in.  First ballot Hall of Famer.  Good enough for top 10 MVP every year, but not quite an MVP winner without the really gaudy numbers of Alex Rodriguez or David Ortiz.

Jimmy Rollins said the Phils were the team to beat in the NL East going into 2007.  The Phillies won 13 of their last 17 games to win the division by one game over the Mets, and Rollins went ahead and won the NL MVP Award while he was at it.  Mets centerfielder Carlos Beltran has already said they are the team to beat this year.  Real original.  They have added Johan Santana to the team that fell one game short a year ago.  The Atlanta Braves will have Mark Texieria for a full season this year, and go without Andruw Jones for the first time since he broke into the league in 1996.  The Washington Nationals have a new ballpark and a new centerfielder in Lastings Milledge.   The Florida Marlins will have a new centerfielder of their own in Cameron Maybin, but be without Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis.  Expect another spectacular year from Hanley Ramirez.  The NL East could be very similar to the NL West in 2007:  very competitive and very balanced among the top three teams.

Here’s the link to the NL East outlook for 2008: 

http://thebigleaguebeat.com/2008-nl-east-preview/

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 Adam Wainwright’s new deal is a four-year contract worth $15 million.  The Cardinals have two one-year options for 2012 and 2013.  Wainwright emerged as an up-and-coming starting pitcher in 2007.  He posted 14 wins in 202 innings pitched with a 3.70 ERA.  The 2000 first round draft choice of the Atlanta Braves, Wainwright made his way to St. Louis when the Braves acquired J.D. Drew.  The Cardinals ace is developing nicely, but the highlight of his career has already come and gone.  He will forever be remembered closing out the 2006 World Series while filling in for Jason Isringhausen as the Cardinals closer for their stretch run.  Wainwright made just $410,000 in 2007 for St. Louis.

 The New York Mets selected Florida high schooler Lastings Milledge as the 12th overall pick in the 2003.  Milledge was the classic toolsy outfield prospect, with an intrguing speed and power combination.  There were questions regarding his makeup from the beginning, but the talent was obvious.  Here is an excellent profile of Milledge.

The Mets decided they had had enough of Milledge’s clubhouse personality and traded him this offseason to the Washington Nationals for Brian Schneider and Ryan Church.  Schneider and Church will be starters for the Mets, but these two are also the reason the Mets will have only the third-best lineup in the division.

Meanwhile, Lastings Milledge just dropped a bomb off Jeremy Bonderman in spring training action.  He has the speed to play centerfield and the bat to hit at the top of the lineup. 

And then the Mets act surprised that Moises Alou had to be placed on the disabled list.  Of course they traded Carlos Gomez this offseason too.

Oakland Athletics General Manager Billy Beane had apparently been inquiring about Milledge for years, but Mets GM Omar Minaya apparently made up his mind quickly and dumped him to GM Jim Bowden of the Nationals.  This move reeks of the Scott Kazmir to Tampa Bay for Victor Zambrano trade.  Zambrano went 10-14 for the Mets in parts of three seasons in New York.  I bet Mets fans wish they still had Kazmir, the pitcher who led the American League in strikeouts (239) in 2007.  Soon they will wish they still had Lastings Milledge, too, if they don’t already.