Max Scherzer burst onto the MLB scene last night with a perfect 4.1 innings in relief, striking out 7 of those 13 batters he faced.  He threw 35 of his 47 pitches for strikes and touched 98 mph on the radar gun.  The Arizona Diamondbacks have added an incredibly talented pitcher, but now the debate on how to most-effectively use Scherzer will begin.

It looks like Scherzer’s talent will overcome the negative beginning of his professional career. 

Scherzer, who attended the University of Missouri, was the best arm in the 2006 draft, but fell to 11th overall to the Arizona Diamonbacks because of signability.  Guess who his agent is?

After the draft, Scherzer pulled a J.D. Drew (and later, a Luke Hochevar)–two other Scott Boras clients–and decided to play independent baseball with the American Association rather than sign with Arizona.  Scherzer dominated in 16 innings, but unlike Drew and Hochevar, he signed with Arizona after all, just before the deadline.

While scouts and executives have said Scherzer profiles as a dominant power closer at the Major League level because of a lack of a third pitch, his AAA numbers this year (4 starts, 23 IP, 1.17 ERA, 38 K, 3 BB) and MLB debut last night suggest he could be a very good starting pitcher.  As for the need to develop a third pitch to be a quality MLB starter?  There is another starter for the Diamondbacks who has made it just fine with only two pitches:  Randy Johnson.

Max Scherzer will be to the Diamondbacks what Joba Chamberlain is to the Yankees:  the talent, the hype, and the controversy on how to use him.

So far in the 2008 season, the Diamondbacks are by far the best team in the National League and they just got a lot better with the addition of Scherzer.  Micah Owings has a sore ankle and Doug Davis is beginning cancer treatment, so a starting role for Scherzer may soon be a necessity.  Whatever his role, Scherzer has seen the last of the minor leagues.

UPDATE:  Max Scherzer will start Monday, May 5th at home versus Jamie Moyer and the Philadelphia Phillies.  That didn’t take long.

  How did it ever come to this? 

Barry Zito has been relegated to the San Francisco Giants’ bullpen.

The 2002 American League Cy Young award winner is 0-6 in six starts this season. 

The Oakland Athletics drafted the southpaw in 1999 number nine overall out of the University of Southern California.  Scouts and other general managers believed Zito wasn’t a top-10 overall talent, but Billy Beane got him at a relative discount at a $1.59 million signing bonus.  Remember the number two overall draft choice, Josh Beckett, received a bonus right at $4 million as well as a Major League contract worth 4 years, $7 million.  Meanwhile, the Phillies took pitcher Brett Myers after Zito at number 12 overall and gave him a $2.05 million signing bonus (special thanks to the guys at www.phuturephillies.com).  So Billy Beane paid nearly half a million dollars less to his first choice than the Phillies’, albeit a higher draft choice since he went with the polished college lefty over the projectable high school righthander.

The other part of the equation was that Zito could contribute to the Major League club quickly.  The economical constraints of the Oakland Athletics made speedy development of draft choices a necessity.  In fact, Zito was in the Show a year after being drafted (2000), throwing 92.7 innings, including a complete game shutout in his 10th MLB start.  Check out this graph of the first 100 MLB games of Beckett, Zito, and Myers.

It’s not even close.  Zito had already won a Cy Young and was 32 games over .500.   Meanwhile Beckett had been plagued with nagging injuries and would reach his then-career high of 15 that same year of 2005.  Myers would break the 200 innings pitched barrier for the first time in 2005, but otherwise looked very average.

Here is how they have fared since Game 100.

Brett Myers spent 2007 as Philadephia’s closer, but is back in the rotation for 2008.  He’s a solid Major Leaguer.  Beckett pitched the Red Sox to the World Series and finished 2nd in the AL Cy Young voting.  Barry Zito turned into a pedestrian starter, but get this:  Zito has appeared in 162 games since his 100th game, while that number is 73 for Beckett and 98 for Myers.

Zito went 23-5 with 2.75 ERA in 2002 to win the AL Cy Young over Pedro Martinez, who complained that Hall of Fame writer Peter Gammons’ open lobbying for Zito swayed voters’ opinions.  Yet in the four years between Zito’s Cy Young and his free agency, he went only 55-46:  9 games over .500 after going 18 games over .500 in 2002 alone.  Zito’s WHIP in his last season in Oakland was a whopping 1.403.  San Francisco knew all this. 

Barry Zito hired Scott Boras as his agent in 2006, and so the trouble began.  The San Francisco Giants signed the lefthander before the 2007 season to a 7-year, $126 million contract.  Now days it’s pretty much a consensus to be one of the–if not the absolute–worst contracts in MLB history.  What’s funny is that San Francisco General Manager Brian Sabean was once a well-respected league executive. 

Fast forward to 2008, and Zito’s current WHIP is 1.953.  Opponents are batting .336 off Zito in 2008, while the National League average is .255.  Basically, Barry Zito is making every hitter he faces look like a batting champ.

It’s difficult to blame Zito for agreeing to such an absurd offer, but why can’t he even break 85 miles per hour with his fastball?  Zito’s once-famous curveball has been rendered obselete without any sort of velocity of his fastball. 

Maybe it’s the 1,600+ innings Zito logged at the Major League before his 30th birthday. 

Beckett, of course, is the first choice of able-bodied pitchers if you had one game for all the marbles.

Brett Myers is a middle-of-the-rotation MLB starting pitcher (although manager Charlie Manuel unwisely made him the Phillies’ Opening Day start over Cole Hamels).  But here’s the thing:  Myers is paid like a middle-of-the-rotation starter.  Well, a 2-3 starter.  His current contract, agreed to before the 2007 season, is for 3-years, $25.75 million.

Barry Zito’s numbers after his 100th MLB game indicate that he is an average, but reliable, innings eater.  Last season, he was 3.1 innings from breaking the 200 IP mark for the seventh consecutive season.  Major League starters who can provide 200 innings every year are valuable, but not worth $126 million.  Was it because Zito is marketable? 

Maybe Billy Beane knew all along.  Maybe he knew that Zito would be fast tracked to the Show and that the first half of Zito’s career would be remarkably better than the latter half.  That’s the risk general managers take.  Upside versus a safe choice.  A player who is ready versus a project.  Meanwhile Josh Beckett’s career is following the reciprocal path and his ceiling is a mile high.  Maybe it’s not even Zito’s fault, although it would be interesting to see the guy reach back and throw as hard as he can one time.  Taking $126 seems like a no-brainer, but Zito did take on an enormous amount of pressure with this contract.  Just ask Jason Giambi about the pressure of living up to his $121 million contract.  On a related note, GM Billy Beane got the best years out of Giambi, too, for a fraction of what he would make when he hit the free agent market.

Maybe Barry Zito can figure it out.  At least some of it, that is, because he looks like he will never be better than a .500 pitcher at this point.  If Zito can’t figure it out, the San Francisco Giants and GM Brian Sabean gave a 7-year, $126 million contract to a left-handed long-reliever/number five starter who throws 83 mph with an average curve.  Oh, and there’s a $18 million club option for an eighth year.  Think they’ll pick it up?

UPDATE: 

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AL EAST

(14-11) The Orioles continue to play well.  Brian Burres threw eight scoreless in Chicago to beat the Central-leading White Sox on Saturday.  George Sherrill is 9-9 in saves.

(14-11)  Offseason acquisition Troy Percival has yet to allow a run this season as the Rays’ closer, going 5-5 in saves.  James Shields threw a 2-hitter against Boston yesterday to sweep the Red Sox.

(15-12) Boston has lost five games in a row, but Josh Beckett looked good yesterday:  he struck out 13 in seven innings pitched.

(13-13)  Chien-Ming Wang, who has won 19 games each of the last two years, is off to a 5-0 start.  Catcher Jorge Posada will go on the disabled list for the first time in his 14-year career.  Quote of the weekend:  “I’m not playing first base,” Posada said. “I’m a catcher. We’ve got seven first basemen.”  Mariano Rivera has yet to give up a run this season.

(11-15)  Three of Roy Halladay’s five starts have been complete games.

AL CENTRAL

(14-10)  Carlos Quentin is getting the opportunity to play everyday in Chicago and playing well.  His OPS is currently at .997, including five homeruns.

(12-13) Cliff Lee has been the best pitcher in the American League so far in 2008. His complete game shutout on Thursday marked the highest game score (90) of the season so far, lowering his ERA to 0.28 and his WHIP to 0.411.  Also, C.C. Sabathia has had two impressive starts in a row.

(11-14)  Closer and former Rule 5 draftee Joakim Soria has yet to give up a run this season (6-6 in saves).

(11-14)  2003 number one overall draft choice Delmon Young has only walked 31 times in 913 career MLB plate appearances and has only a .315 on-base percentage for his career. 

(11-15) Want to know the importance of Curtis Granderson? Detroit began 2008 terribly without him and their leadoff hitter went 2-4 with 2 walks, 2 RBI, and 3 runs scored in his first game back as the Tigers scored 19 runs. The next day, he led off the game with a homerun.

AL WEST

  (16-10)  After a shaky start, Francisco Rodriguez leads the AL in saves with 10.  Former first rounder Casey Kotchman has arrived.  He’s hitting .337/.404/.584 this season.

(16-10)  Oakland is 8-3 on the road, the best in MLB.  Dana Eveland, acquired in the Dan Haren trade, is 3-1 with a 2.48 ERA.

(12-14)  Felix Hernandez leads Major League Baseball in strikeouts with 41 and has a 2.22 ERA, but has only 2 wins to show for it in six starts.

(9-17)  The Rangers’ terrible start raises the question:  is manager Ron Washington on the hot seat already?  Offseason acquisition Josh Hamilton is hitting, though.  He has 15 extra base hits and a MLB-leading 27 RBIs so far in 2008.

CLICK HERE FOR WEEK 4 POWER RANKINGS

NL WEST

(18-7) Brandon Webb beat Jake Peavy on Sunday in a matchup of the last two NL Cy Young winners.  Webb is now 6-0 for the season.

(12-13)  In just a week the Dodgers went from last in the NL West to 2nd in this weird division.  Rafael Furcal is still leading the way and Brad Penny has become one of the most dependable starters in the National League.

(11-15) Is there a light at the end of the tunnel for the Giants’ recent woes? They have three nice young pitchers in Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, and Tim Lincecum.  Lincecum is 4-0 with a 1.23 ERA.  It would be a shame if they can’t keep these three long term because of Barry Zito’s awful contract.  Zito is, of course, 0-6 in six starts.

( 10-15) Brian Fuentes will take over as Colorado’s closer for the struggling Manny Corpas, the guy who took the position from Fuentes last July after the lefthander blew four consecutive save opportunities.

(10-16) Greg Maddux is having a solid 23rd Major League season. He threw seven scoreless innings last Wednesday night, but his 350th win eluded him when closer Trevor Hoffman blew a save.

NL CENTRAL

(16-9)  Geovany Soto is having a great rookie season so far, hitting .316/.415/.544.  He’s also thrown out a third of attempted base stealers.  Hopefully he can rebound from Saturday’s game though, when he went 0-5 with 5 strikeouts.

(16-10) Adam Wainwright threw a complete game on Saturday to run his record to 3-1.  The Cardinals’ offense leads Major League Baseball in walks.  Albert Pujols leads all MLB players with 27 of them.

(14-11) Eric Gagne looked like a great signing by Milwaukee, but the 2003 NL Cy Young is obviously not what he once was.  He currently has a MLB-leading four blown saves.

(12-14) The Astros won six in a row this week to climb in the NL Central standings.  Lance Berkman has led the way, hitting .322/.406/.711 with 8 homeruns.  But get this:  the big first baseman is 4-4 in stolen bases.

(11-15)  Rookie first baseman Joey Votto is hitting .310 with four homeruns and 13 RBIs, but when will top overall prospect Jay Bruce get the call?  General Manager Wayne Krivsky was fired this week and replaced by former Cardinals GM Walt Jockety.  Did the handling of Jay Bruce have anything to do with Krivsky’s pink slip?

(10-15)  Paul Maholm is 2-2 with a 3.26 ERA, including a two-hit complete game against Philadelphia on Sunday.

NL EAST

(15-10) Hanley Ramirez is the most talented player in Major League Baseball and will be an annual candidate to reach 40-40.  He is currently at 8 homeruns and 9 steals.

(13-11)  Mets closer Billy Wagner has yet to give up a hit this season in 9 innings.  Maybe it’s the windup he’s using this year.

(14-12)  Pat The Bat Burrell for MVP?  He’s hitting .349 with 8 homeruns and 25 RBI.  Oh, and 20 walks too, for a 1.188 OPS.

(12-13)  The Braves’ relief corps is struggling and closer Rafael Soriano isn’t coming off the disabled list anytime soon.

(9-17) John Lannan is throwing well for the lowly Nationals.  The lefty is 2-2 with a 2.64 ERA.

Scouts often like to say a player will “eat” his way out of a particular position on the field.  It seems Miguel Cabrera has done just that.

The Detroit Tigers have decided to switch the positions of Cabrera and Carlos Guillen.  Guillen, of course, played shortstop his entire career until this season.  He had lost a step and made way for Edgar Renteria.

Weight has been an issue since Cabrera has come into the league at age 20.  In fact, even a fitness center sponsors his www.baseballreference.com page.  Everyone gains weight as they age, but check out this comparison and remember that Cabrera just turned 25 last week:

2003:                      2008: 

Remember that Miguel Cabrera was actually a shortstop himself in the minor leagues.

This move makes sense for the Tigers, though.  It’s logical that if Guillen is a step slow for shortstop that the natural progression be third base.  Third base will also be less stressful physically to the often-injured sweet-swinging switch hitter.  Also, for Cabrera, it wasn’t his defense that earned him his recent 8-year, $152 million contract.  His fielding percentage and range were both below the National League average for third basemen in 2007.  Cabrera will continue to be one of the 20-best hitters on earth, but now it will be as a first baseman, and the move clearly makes the Tigers better.

  John Smoltz became the 16th pitcher in Major League Baseball history to strike out 3,000 batters on Tuesday night. 

Smoltz took his first loss of the season and saw his National League-leading ERA rise all the way to 0.78 in his four starts this year.  He went seven innings, allowing just one run while striking out ten and walking zero.  He tied C.C. Sabathia (73) for the highest game score of the night.  Talk about a tough luck loser.

It’s not talked about enough, but John Smoltz is a Hall of Famer.  With his 3,000th strikeout last night, he didn’t move up the ladder any, but he could realistically move all the way to 12th all-time (from 16th) this season.  Smoltz is 186 strikeouts away from Ferguson Jenkins at number twelve, while Bob Gibson, Curt Schilling, and Pedro Martinez are littered in between.  Jenkins and Gibson are long since retired, and while Schilling and Martinez are still on MLB rosters, they may have very well thrown their last MLB pitches also.

Smoltz’s numbers aren’t as gaudy as some others from his era.  For instance, he wasn’t included in the Greatest Pitcher of the Generation Debate, but Smoltz should begin gaining recognition for his fabulous career.  He’s had five top-10 NL Cy Young finishes including one win in 1996.  He’s played on some teams that have been called postseason chokers, but Smoltz is 15-4 with a 2.65 ERA and four saves in his postseason career.  Two of his most memorable postseason starts were way back in 1991 when he threw a complete game shutout in Game 7 of the NLCS to get to the World Series and then threw 7 and a third scoreless in that season’s final game: in what was one of the greatest games in the history of the World Series, a 1-0 loss to Minnesota in 10 innings.

Smoltz, of course, has always had to deal with nagging injury issues.  The injuries haven’t kept him from going over the 200 innings pitched mark ten times in his career, but his elbow required Tommy John surgery before the 2000 season.  The Braves and Smoltz decided a move to the bullpen was necessary to prolong his career.

There, John Smoltz became the one of the best two or three closers in all of baseball.  He saved 55 (tied for 2nd-most all time in a season), 45, and 44 games in consecutive seasons and is the only player in MLB history to have both 200 career wins and 150 career saves.

Right now, Smoltz leads the NL in both strikeouts and ERA.  Barring an injury, he should post his third consecutive top-10 NL Cy Young finish, maybe more.  Of course, his Atlanta Braves’ chances in 2008 depend on the health of Smoltz’s right shoulder, but the guy is throwing exceptionally well so far even with the twinge in his shoulder.

Smoltz was sometimes lost in the shuffle among the other elite pitchers in very same rotation, but don’t forget that he’s had an incredible career:  a career that will be documented in Cooperstown.

Playing in some worn down midwest town 1,000 miles from home.  After the game, getting on a bus and driving all night to another miscellaneous town.  Trying to be a dad and a husband via a cell phone.  The disappointment of being assigned to repeat a level you’ve played before.  Being the oldest guy on the team every year.  Taking a job in the offseason to help pay the mortgage.  All of it in the hopes of one day making it to the Major Leagues.

  Chris Coste finally made it to the Show in 2006 after spending six seasons in the minor leagues.  Coste also had spent parts of five years playing independent baseball following his career at Division-III Concordia College.  It’s been a long journey, but Coste’s dream has come true.

Chris Coste isn’t just a ballplayer, but a writer too, apparently.  Coste tells his story in his new book called “The 33-Year-Old Rookie”.

Coste is having a superb year thus far behind the plate for the Philadelphia Phillies, hitting .385/.484/.731 in 10 games played while platooning with Carlos Ruiz.  He’s also thrown out a third of attempted base stealers.  In 2008 Coste will be one of the lowest-paid players in the Major Leagues.  But it’s six figures.  No more offseason jobs.  And no more bus rides.

CLICK HERE FOR WEEK 3 POWER RANKINGS

AL EAST

(13-7) David Ortiz still isn’t hitting much, but the Red Sox are still winning, thanks mostly to Manny Ramirez, who is re-establishing himself as the league’s best hitter.

(11-8) A change of leagues has been great for Luke Scott.  He’s hitting .361/.443/.557 since coming over in the Miguel Tejada trade.

(10-9)  Toronto benched and then released more-than-likely Hall of Famer Frank Thomas on Sunday.  Thomas led the Blue Jays with 26 homeruns and 95 runs batted in last season.  Will General Manager J.P. Riccardi call Barry Bonds now?

(10-10)  Andy Pettitte threw seven scoreless on Sunday, but how long can the Yankees wait to put Joba Chamberlain in the rotation?

(8-11)  Edwin Jackson remains inconsistent, but the real question remains:  when is their ace–and last year’s AL strikeout champ–Scott Kazmir coming back?

AL CENTRAL

(11-7)  John Danks has gone back to back starts without allowing a run.  Keep an eye out for Danks.  He may be developing into a fine left-handed starter.

(9-10)  Zack Greinke was drafted number six overall in 2002.  Within five years, he was pretty much considered a failed prospect.  Now he has honed his talent to a 3-0 start to 2008 with a 1.24 ERA. 

(9-10)  Carlos Gomez is leading the American League with 9 stolen bases, but is hitting just .244 as Torii Hunter’s replacement.

(7-12)  What’s wrong with Cleveland?  Well Victor Martinez has been hurt and is still homerless.  Grady Sizemore is hitting .260 and Travis Hafner is hitting .229.  Oh, and C.C. Sabathia’s ERA is 13.50.  Ouch.

(6-13)  The Tigers’ bright spot continues to be sweet-swinging switch hitter Carlos Guillen, whose OPS is currently 1.081.  Their team ERA is a whopping 5.69.

AL WEST

  (12-8)  Ervin Santana posted a 5.76 ERA in 2007, putting doubts on the rest of his career.  He has bounced back to a 3-0 start to 2008, with an ERA three runs better thus far.

(12-8)  Shortstop Bobby Crosby has battled injuries for much of his career.  He looks healthy so far in 2008 and he’s hitting .313 with 15 RBIs so far.  But it’s Oakland’s 3.36 team ERA that has them in contention.

(10-10)  Richie Sexson is finally starting to show some of his former power (5 homer, 15 RBIs), but the big fish they landed this offseason, Erik Bedard, is on the disabled list.

(7-12)  Milton Bradley quickly bounced back from the torn ACL he suffered at the end of the 2007 season and has posted a .945 OPS so far in ‘08.

CLICK HERE FOR WEEK 3 POWER RANKINGS

NL WEST

(13-5)  The thunder of the Diamonbacks’ acquisition of Dan Haren was stolen after the Mets dealt for Johan Santana, but Haren is 3-0 with in his second stint in the National League.

(9-9) Another sophomore slump? Troy Tulowitzki is struggling, hitting only .176 with no homers yet.

(9-10) Jake Peavy threw 8 scoreless innings with 11 strikeouts on Thursday only to see his Padres lose to Colorado 2-1 in 22 innings.  The Padres are next-to-last in the National League in runs scored.

(8-11)  Well, the Giants are last in the NL in runs scored, but they won a series in St. Louis last weekend behind the hot hitting of rookie John Bowker, who has 3 homers in 7 games this season.

(7-11) Andruw Jones hit his first homer of the season on Saturday, but he’s only hitting .169. Remember his deal is 2 years, $36 million. Ouch.  Rafael Furcal is raking, though.  The Dodgers’ shortstop is in the last year of his current contract and 6th in MLB in OPS at 1.146.

NL CENTRAL

  (12-6)  Derrek Lee finished 3rd in the NL MVP vote of 2005 and won the Silver Slugger Award that year.  He was hurt the next season and had a weird 2007, where his power was sapped (22 homers and 82 RBIs).  In 2008, Lee looks like an MVP candidate again.  He’s hitting .364 with 7 homeruns and 17 RBIs so far.

(12-7)  The Cardinals have always had a knack for finding guys like Ryan Ludwick, who is currently hitting .391 with 4 homeruns and a ridiculous slugging percentage of .848.

(11-7) After hitting 50 homers in 2007, Prince Fielder finally hit his first dinger of this season on Thursday, an extra-inning game winner against the division-leading Cardinals.  Also, Yovani Gallardo made his 2008 debut on Sunday.

(8-11) Remember Ken Griffey, Jr.? He’s closing in on 600 homeruns. There are a lot of 9-, 10-, and 11-year-olds who don’t remember him, but the guy can still rake.

  (7-11)  Nate McLouth is becoming a household baseball name.  His OPS is currently 1.111.

  (7-12)  The news of the week for the Astros was the Miguel Tejada age scandal, but the fact is that the former AL MVP is still a very good Major Leaguer.  He’s hitting .310 with 3 homers so far in 2008.

NL EAST

  (11-7)  Scott Olsen is showing that his terrible second season in 2007 may be the abberation of his young career and is off to a 3-0 start with a 2.60 ERA.

(10-7)  The Mets won a series in Philadelphia last weekend. Johan Santana outdueled Cole Hamels in his best performance so far with his new club, and David Wright went 4-4 with a walk in the same game.

(9-9) Chipper Jones had two two-homer games last week.  He is still one of the best hitters on earth, in case you forgot, but his worst nemesis over the last few years appeared again on Sunday, as he left the game early with a quadriceps injury.  Yunel Escobar had a 12-game hit streak snapped as well.

(9-10)  Chase Utley has hit a homer in four straight games, but his double play partner Jimmy Rollins has missed seven games and now is on the 15-day disabled list.

(5-14)  The Nationals simply aren’t very good.  In five starts so far this season, Odalis Perez has a respectable 3.38 ERA, but he is 0-3.

  With only six Major League games played so far in his career, Evan Longoria and the Tampa Bay Rays have agreed to a contract extension.  The deal is a six-year contract with $17.5 million.  The Rays hold an option for the 2014 season, and then a two-year option for the 2015 and ‘16 seasons combined. 

This contract extension comes within a week of Longoria’s first MLB callup.  Longoria hit his first MLB homerun on Monday.

Who says all Major League baseball players are greedy?  Longoria forfeited an incredible amount of money by signing long term so early in his career.  The Tampa Rays seized an opportunity and got a monumental hometown discount.  Longoria is a top flight talent, but signed a very pedestrian contract. 

Maybe the market is changing.  There have been more pre-arbitration players agreeing to long-term extensions with the club that got them to the Big League level in the last year than ever before.  Look at Curtis Granderson’s new five-year, $30.25 million deal.  He could have made much more on the open market of free agency.  And look how good the Tigers have been in his 2008 absence.  It is an interesting development. 

On the other hand, Johan Santana signed the largest contract ever for a pitcher this offseason.  And Alex Rodriguez signed what will become the largest contract in baseball history. 

Miguel Cabrera signed a contract extension that will pay him an average of $19 million per year for the next eight seasons.  That’s a huge sum of money.  The question now is:  in five years will Longoria regret this extreme discount he gave the Tampa Bay Rays when he is putting up the same numbers as Cabrera as an AL third baseman making a fifth of what the Tigers’ star is making?