All eyes in the baseball world have been on Jay Bruce since his Major League debut on Tuesday. So far, Bruce has shown why Baseball America named him the 2007 Minor Leaguer of the Year and the top overall prospect leading into 2008. In three games, he is 4 for 9 with two RBIs and two stolen bases.
Jay Bruce is a classic five-fool talent, but his makeup has been an impressive attribute since his much-anticipated promotion to the Show.
While playing for the Louisville Bats–Cincinnati’s Triple-A affiliate–Bruce never did post-game interviews at a podium with 50 microphones in his face. Now he will have to deal with the pressure of constant scrutiny that comes with the territory of being a can’t-miss, franchise-saving prospect. But it’s been so far, so good for Bruce as he went 3-3 with two walks and a steal in his MLB debut, showing off his tools and potential.
Jay Bruce was drafted 12th overall in the 2005 draft out of a Texas high school. Again, that year’s draft may go down as the most talent-laden ever: Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Jeff Clement, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Mike Pelfrey, and Cameron Maybin were all drafted ahead of Bruce.
Bruce was raking at AAA before his callup, hitting .364/.393/.630 with 10 homeruns and 8 stolen bases. In fact, it was pretty surprising that Bruce didn’t make the big league club out of spring training. Instead the Reds opted for Corey Patterson whose 2008 line isn’t pretty: he’s hitting .200 even with a .240 OBP and a .352 SLG. He may soon be looking for new work.
While Bruce is a middle-of-the-order power lefty bat who also hits for average and is fast enough to steal bases with a center field glove and a right field arm, there are a few question marks about the five-tool talent’s future development, namely his strikeout rate. Bruce had a staggering 80 extra base hits between three minor league levels in 2007, but with the power came many strikeouts. He struck out 135 times last year and had already accumulated 45 whiffs in AAA so far in 2008. But unlike a player like Jim Thome, who offsets his extremely high strikeout rates with very walk rates (12 seasons 100+ strikeouts, 9 seasons 100+ walks), Bruce only walked 47 times in 2007. The year before he walked 44 times compared to 106 strikeouts in Class Low A baseball.
However, Bruce has walked four times in his three MLB games including the first plate appearance of his career, showing patience in an anxiety-riddled moment. If Bruce can hit Major League pitching like the scouting reports suggest, the walks will come naturally as his reputation spreads and pitchers begin to shy away from the middle of the plate in favor of nibbling at the corners. But more important than actually getting on base will be Bruce’s control of the strikezone, so that he hacks at a pitch to drive rather than a borderline pitcher’s pitch.
While three games mean nothing in the long term grind that baseball is, Bruce seems unaffected by the glitz of the Major Leagues so far. Only the strikeout rate is a concern, but even that is of no consequence if his power remains. Reggie Jackson struck out more times than anybody in Major League Baseball history, but he is a Hall of Famer nonetheless.
Things are looking up for the Reds. They haven’t finished above .500 since 2000 and are currently in last place in the most-populous division in baseball. But in the suspect National League Central, the Reds could turn the division upside down quickly. It begins from within from the work of their scouting and development. Now their franchise player, Jay Bruce, has arrived.