Sometimes a change of scenery makes all the difference in the world.  The early evaluations have been good for all sides so far in the major trades leading up to this year’s deadline.  Maybe the new environment and new opportunity for these players have been the catalyst for instant success.

  Yankees receive:  Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte. 

Xavier Nady was a second round pick of the San Diego Padres in 2000, who went straight to the Major Leagues upon signing as part of his contract and singled in his first MLB at bat.  Then the Padres immediately sent him to the minors to begin his development into a big leaguer.  Last season was Nady’s career high in OPS at just .806, but in 2008, as the 29-year-old Nady is enjoying a career year, hitting .330/.383/.535 with Pittsburgh.

Damaso Marte is a journeyman left-handed reliever.  He’s 33 now, but has had a solid career.  His career ERA (3.29) is over a run better than the league average of his career (4.52).  Only once in his eight MLB seasons has Marte failed to strike out less than a batter per inning.  He had 47 strikeouts in 46 2/3 innings for Pittsburgh before the trade.

  Pirates receive:  Jose Tabata, Jeff Karstens, Ross Ohlendorf, and Dan McCutchen.  

Jose Tabata has been the Yankees’ best position prospect for at least two years–until this year.  He is still very young–only 19–but the projection of his talent has been hampered by injuries.  Last season, it was a hand injury.  In 2008, it’s been a hamstring problem.  The outfielder has always been pushed, playing with much older players, but he was probably a bit overwhelmed as a 19-year-old in Double-A this season where he hit only .248/.320/.310 for the the Yankees’ Double-A affiliate (Trenton).  Pittsburgh has put him in Double-A as well and he’s gone just 2 for 13 for Altoona. 

Jeff Karstens is an average right-handed starting pitcher.  He’s 25 years old and threw well in Triple-A for the Yankees in 2008.  A Triple-A pitcher for the Yankees is good enough to be a starter for Pittsburgh, though, and Karstens is 2-0 in two starts since joining the Pirates’ rotation, including the game of his life on August 6 when he threw a complete game shutout, allowing only two hits and one walk.

Many in the organization thought Ross Ohlendorf would be the guy to take Joba Chamberlain’s 8th inning slot when Chamberlain moved to the rotation.  However, Ohlendorf has given up 50 hits in 40 innings pitched and had an ERA of 6.53 with New York.

Dan McCutchen is a solid starting pitching prospect and will get a shot in Pittsburgh.  He has a 3.33 ERA in 148.2 IP with 127 strikeouts and 35 walks allowed.

Verdict:  It seems the Pirates traded Nady at his highest value for Tabata at his lowest value.  The Pirates received usable parts and lost Nady’s salary, but they should have asked for Ian Kennedy as well, even though he’s been terrible at the Major League level in 2008.  Also, Nady’s 2008 salary is only $3.35 million and he’ll be eligible for free agency after the 2009 year.  He has raked for the Yankees, hitting .339/.403/.679 with 5 homeruns in 16 games.  Nady’s .942 OPS in 2008 is tied for 11th best in all of Major League Baseball.  A right-handed power hitting outfielder is just what the Yankees needed and they haven’t had a viable lefty bullpen option since Mike Stanton.  Advantage: New York Yankees.

  Dodgers receive:  Manuel Aristides Ramirez.

   Pirates receive:  Andy LaRoche, Bryan Morris, Brandon Moss, and Craig Hansen.

  Red Sox receive:  Jason Bay.

Manny Ramirez didn’t play hard for his last ten games in a Boston Red Sox uniform to the tune of .351/.467/.622 including two bombs, eight walks (three intentional), eight runs scored, and an OPS of 1.089.  He’s the best right-handed hitter in the 50-year gap between Joe DiMaggio and Albert Pujols.  At the time of the trade, Ramirez’s OPS was .927  That would be his second-lowest for a full season in his illustrious career, yet still good enough for 7th in the American League at the time. 

Jason Bay has already put together a pretty solid MLB career.  A terrible 2007 season in which he still hit 21 homeruns is the aberration in a career that Bay has displayed both plate discipline and power.  His career line is .282/.375/.515 in five full seasons.  Bay is signed through 2009 and is due to make $7.5 million next year, much less than half of the $20 million option for Ramirez.

Brandon Moss hit his first MLB homerun in the opening series of 2008 in Japan.  He is underrated as a player and should have a solid career, but he’s yet to have regular playing time.  He’ll get just that in Pittsburgh.

Andy LaRoche should have been playing third base for the Los Angeles Dodgers all along.  He injured a ligament in his thumb during spring training and found his spot occupied when he returned to action.  He has yet to receive regular MLB at bats, but his minor league numbers show the potential for an exceptional hitter.  In three and a half minor league seasons, LaRoche has hit .294/.380/.517 with 95 homeruns.  The 86-point difference between his batting average and on-base percentage shows that he’s quite selective at the plate along with a .223 isolated power number proving his pop.

Craig Hansen was a first rounder in 2005 St. John’s University and signed to a Major League contract.  He was going to be the Red Sox closer until command issues hampered him and Jonathan Papelbon emerged.  He’s a right-hander who throws 95 mph, but recorded only 25 strikeouts to 23 walks in 30.7 innings for Boston before the trade.  His periphreal ratios in Pittsburgh has been even worse.  He’s yet to record a strikeout, but walked six in four appearances.  He does have a save and a 3.86 ERA for the Pirates.

Bryan Morris could be the wild card in this trade for Pittsburgh.  The Dodgers took him in the first round in 2006 and he did well in rookie ball.  Then he had to have Tommy John surgery and missed all of 2007.  In 2008 in the Class-Low A Midwest League, Morris has shown flashed his potential.  He is still gaining arm strength, but had a 3.20 ERA in 81.7 IP (17 starts) before the trade.

Verdict:  Manny Ramirez could be the difference in the Dodgers winning the NL West.  He’s torched the NL for a line of .475/.543/.850 including four homeruns in just 10 games.  Jason Bay has hit a solid .326/.383/.488 in his first 10 games with Boston.  Andy LaRoche already has his first homerun as a Pirate and Jeff Karstens flirted with a no-hitter in his second start with Pittsburgh.  All of these teams should be pleased with the preliminary results of this blockbuster trade.  Boston did give up three players for one not as good as Manny Ramirez, though.  The Pirates gave up the second of their trio of outfielders who had an OPS over .900 in the 2008 season, leaving only Nate McLouth for 2009.  The Dodgers gave up too soon on Andy LaRoche, who only needs a chance at the MLB level to succeed.  That and a clean bill of health.  The Dodgers win this trade because the acquisition of the much-needed power bat in Manny Ramirez makes them a completely different team offensively.  It would be an interesting twist in irony if the Red Sox, who felt they had to deal Manny, end up missing the playoffs while his new team is catapulted to a playoff berth.

   Angels receive:  Mark Teixeira.

  Braves receive:  Casey Kotchman and Stephen Marek.

Mark Teixeira looks like he’ll hit right under .300 with around 35 bombs and post an OPS just under .950 for several more years.  He’s done pretty much that every year since coming into the league in 2003.  He’ll turn 29 in the second week of the 2009 season.  Agent Scott Boras knows all this and is sure to garner the switch-hitting first baseman a huge contract. 

Casey Kotchman was a rare first round first baseman taken in 2001.  He simply never developed the power the Angels thought he would.  His 12 homeruns so far in 2008 are a career high.  Kotchman is only 25 years old, so there is hope that he develop more power, but so far in 1,317 MLB plate appearances he’s only got on base at a .336 career clip.

Stephen Marek is a minor league reliever.  He is a right-hander in Double-A.  The 24-year-old put up solid numbers in the Texas League before the trade, striking out 57 and allowing only 39 hits in 46.7 innings pitched.  He will help out in Atlanta’s bullpen within two years.

Analysis:  Trading for Mark Teixeira makes the Anaheim Angels a very different team.  In 2006, they finished second in the AL West.  Last season, they won the West but were swept in the first round by Boston.  It was Vladimir Guerrero’s worst power season in the Major Leagues.  This season, Guerrero’s numbers have slipped even more.  Teixeira’s power will help this National League-style team–that is clearly good enough to win the West–compete with the powerful teams from the AL East for the American League pennant.  In fact, the addition of Teixeira may the piece that makes Anaheim the team to beat in 2008.  Atlanta was not going to sign Mark Teixeira.  They would’ve received a Type A compensation for losing Teixeira in next June’s amateur draft, but instead they sold him for pennies and acquired Kotchman and Marek.  Kotchman will be in Atlanta the next two seasons, but will also be arbitration elgibile.  While this move is adequate by Atlanta to get something (rather than just a draft choice) for the premium Major League talent in Teixeira, it’s a shame they gave up so much to Texas in acquiring Teixeira in the first place.  They gave up Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Elvis Andrus, and Neftali Feliz for a year’s rental of Teixeira.  The future of this deal is, of course, contingent on whether or not the Angels can secure Teixeira to a long-term contract.  Apparently Torii Hunter has already began to lobby Teixeira on behalf of the Angels organization.  They Angels clearly play in a market that could afford a player of his talent.  If they aren’t able to keep him after this season, the cost was still minimal and the return is a powerful, switch-hitting first baseman that gives the Angels a chance to win the 2008 World Series.

   Curt Schilling is a loudmouth.  He has a blog.  He is so opinionated and polarizing that even many of his own Boston Red Sox fans dislike him.  But he is also a Hall of Famer.

The Baseball Writers Association of America has made many questionable decisions over the years in electing players to the Hall of Fame.  Perception, popularity, tradition, and a misinterpretation of statistics are the catalysts that cause humans to skew the results of baseball’s highest honor.  Remember that this is the same group of people who have never selected any player to the Hall as a unanimous choice–not even Babe Ruth–so that when an obvious selection like Cal Ripken, Jr., comes along, someone always votes against the new candidate out of spite.  This is the same group that did not vote Joe DiMaggio a Hall of Famer until his third try on the ballot.

Recently some writers have claimed Curt Schilling will not be elected into the Hall of Fame because he currently only has 216 career victories.  This is exactly the fouled logic that creates problems in gauging statistics for baseball.  Anyone who has ever enjoyed a baseball game knows that a pitcher could be the loser in a 2-1 game or the winner in a 10-9 game.  In a complex team sport where the defense actually controlls the ball and features an one-on-one matchup between the pitcher and a batter, a pitcher actually has less control of whether or not he receives the victory than one might think at first glance.  Put Sandy Koufax in his prime on a college team and he would certainly shut down the Yankees, but his performance would not garner a win unless his team could score.

Only recently has Curt Schilling played on winning ballclubs.  In 1992 in his first year as a starter, the 25-year-old Schilling posted a fantastic breakout season by throwing 226.3 innings with a 2.35 ERA and a 0.990 WHIP.  He led the National League in WHIP and placed fourth in ERA, but did not receive one vote on the NL Cy Young ballot that year.  He only went 14-11 because his 1992 Philadelphia Phillies went 70-92, finishing dead last in the NL East.

Tom Glavine has won 305 games and two NL Cy Young Awards.  He is certainly a Hall of Famer.  But look at his career numbers compared to Schilling’s. 

Remember the organization Tom Glavine played for won 14 consecutive division titles.  Schilling pitched the Phillies to the NL Pennant in 1993, but did not play on another winning team until he was traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2000.   Schilling has struck out a little over 500 more batters than Glavine, but he’s walked half as many.  Schilling’s WHIP and ERA are better also, doing so in a situation where the average ERA was higher than Glavine’s (due to Schilling’s time in the American League).

Now look at Schilling’s career compared to one of the most famous pitchers in Major League Baseball history, Nolan Ryan.

Again, the wins are there for Ryan.  However, he threw in parts of 27 seasons and four decades.  How many Cy Young Awards did Nolan Ryan win?  The same number as Schilling.  Zero.  Ryan is, of course, the all-time leader in strikeouts and leads Schilling by nearly 2,600.  However, Ryan also has allowed more bases on balls and thrown more wild pitches than anyone in MLB history.  While Ryan’s ERA is better than Schilling’s, the average ERA of each pitcher’s era indicates that Schilling–who pitched in the steroid era–was actually better in this regard.  Besides the 324 wins for Ryan, he also lost 292 games which is the most in the modern era.  Yet the Baseball Writers Association of America voted Ryan into the Hall of Fame with an astouding percentage of 98.2% saying “yes” to his worth, only six votes short of unanimous.

Schilling’s 4.38 strikeout-to-walk ratio is second all-time, trailing only Tommy Bond, whose name may not be familiar since his final season was in 1884.  But Schilling has also struck out enough batters to rank 14th all-time on that respective list.  He may be the rarest combination of power and control of his generation.  His numbers in 2002 are staggering:  he struck out 316 batters and walked only 33.  That 9.68 strikeout-to-walk ratio is the 2nd-best individual season ever in that regard with only Bret Saberhagen’s 1994 season mark of 143/13 (11 ratio) better, though he made only 24 starts because of the strike. 

While he has struck out more and walked less than the likes of John Smoltz, Mike Mussina, and Pedro Martinez, writers argue that Curt Schilling has never won a Cy Young award.  But oftentimes those awards are not exact barometers of a player’s career.  Sometimes chance is a factor.  Sadly, name recognition also plays a role.

Take another look at Curt Schilling’s 2002 season and think of what numbers are deserving of a Cy Young award. 

20 wins?  Check.  300 strikeouts?  Check.  Under 1.00 WHIP?  Check.  Add in an ERA more than a run better than the league average and well over 200 innings pitched.  This is an incredible season, coming in the middle of the steroid era, one year after Barry Bonds hit 73 homers.  But get this:  Curt Schilling did not even receive one first-place vote for the 2002 NL Cy Young Award.  His teammate Randy Johnson won unanimously, his fourth straight NL Cy Young.  Schilling has finished 2nd in the Cy Young three times.  His 1.85 Cy Young shares rank 16th of all time and are the most of any pitcher to never win the award.

Take a look at what happened in the American League in deciding the 2001 Cy Young award winner.

Player A’s team won 102 games while Player B’s team won 95.  The numbers are close, but easily in favor of Player A.  While Player B did record more strikeouts, his strikeout-to-walk ratio is slightly worse than than his counterpart’s.  Somehow, Player B won the award–probably because Player B was Roger Clemens and Player A was second-year player named Mark Mulder.  Player B played for the New York Yankees and Player A played for the Oakland Athletics, also a probably factor.  In fact, of the top six finishers in that year’s vote, Clemens had the worst ERA and WHIP of the group. 

Roger Clemens has had a better career than Curt Schilling, but it’s not because Clemens has seven Cy Young Awards and Schilling has none.  In fact, Schilling’s best seasons compare quite nicely to Clemens’ best seasons.  For instance, Schilling has recorded 300+ strikeouts in a season three times, while Clemens never accomplished the feat.  Also, Schilling’s two seasons recording a sub-1.00 WHIP Clemens’ one.  Here is each pitcher’s arguably best five seasons:

The Boston Red Sox championship season in 2004 was obviously one of the most important sporting events in years.  They have since won another, but the first never happens without Curt Schilling.  Nobody would remember the bloody sock had Schilling not gone seven innings, allowing four hits and one run on the road in Yankee Stadium in an elimination game.  Obviously Schilling’s postseason prowess is one of his strengths, but 133.3 innings is a small sample size.  He is 10-2 with 120 strikeouts, 25 walks, and a 2.23 ERA in 19 career postseason starts. 

Schilling should not be in the Hall of Fame simply for his postseason numbers, but they must be noted.  Look at Schilling’s numbers versus his contemporaries.  There are not many starters better than he has been through the course of his career.  Remember win totals are a product of a starting pitcher’s environment and that while Curt Schilling played on some awful teams in Philadelphia, he still put up an incredible career, a career worthy of the Hall of Fame.  The Baseball Writers Association of America has made mistakes in the past, but it would shame to not include Schilling among the all time greats.  Even if he is a loudmouth.

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  From September 30, 1951, when Joe Dimaggio played his last game until April 2, 2001, when Albert Pujols made his debut there is a fifty year period. 

Manny Ramirez was the best right-handed hitter of that 50 year period.

Now Ramirez has become the 24th player in Major League Baseball history to hit 500 homeruns.  But he is also one of the greatest hitters ever.  Check this chart marking the on-base plus slugging percentages among members of the 500 Homerun Club.

Ramirez ranks fifth among the group of 24 in OPS.  Pretty esteemed company.  Foxx is the only right-handed hitter above Ramirez.  Only Manny’s worst full season (2007) of his career keeps him just under 1.000 for his career.  That dreadful 2007 season is the only time Ramirez has registered a slugging percentage under .500. 

Now look at Manny Ramirez’s contemporary right-handed hitting peers. 

* minimum 5,000 plate appearances (excluding Albert Pujols)

Notice that Ramirez has a higher batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage than Alex Rodriguez.  The consistency and longevity of Ramirez has been incredible.  Oddly enough–comical, even–two third place finishes in the American League Most Valuable Player Award voting is the highest place he has been able to muster.  Juan Gonzalez won two MVP Awards over the same time period and probably isn’t even a Hall of Famer at all.  Manny is the first-ballot type. 

Reporters love to talk about Manny’s antics, or his hair, or his disposition, but the guy can absolutely rake.  Once when asked about Manny’s seemingly air-headed ways, Curt Schilling commented that Ramirez is “dumb like a fox”.  His on-base percentage tells that he knows the strike zone as well as revealing his patience, but his near .600 career slugging percentage shows that he hammers the pitch he is looking for.  Probably Barry Bonds is the only other player of Ramirez’s generation more feared with runners on base in a close, late game.  Ramirez has always seemed to have a knack for delivering a devastating, run-scoring hit, and his 165 RBIs in 1999 are the most in a single season since Jimmie Foxx drove in 175 in 1938.  Also, Ramirez is probably the best breaking-ball hitter in recent memory, a hitter known for his ability to drive the ball out of the park to the opposite field.

Manny’s personality has come overshadow his ability in the era of the 24-hour news cycle and pop culture world in which we live.  Don’t forget that beyond the hugs and high-fives (to fans) and celebrations of his homeruns and visits inside the Green Monster, Manny Ramirez is truly one of the greatest hitters to ever play the game.

  Jon Lester’s no-hitter last night was impressive.  He struck out 9 and walked 2 and his game score of 94 is the highest of the 2008 season. 

But the significance of the 18th no-hitter in Red Sox history is much greater than one game.  It indicates that Boston may have made the correct decision in not trading for Johan Santana. 

The Red Sox cited obvious economic reasons for not dealing for Santana (he signed the largest contract ever for a pitcher), but keeping Lester and Jacoby Ellsbury may end up being a personnel decision that keeps Boston at the top of the American League for years to come. 

Ellsbury is hitting .276/.377/.396 in his rookie campaign.  He’s 18 of 19 in stolen base attempts and has walked more times (20) than he’s struck out (15).

Lester was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2002 draft from a Washington high school.  He was the Eastern League’s Pitcher of the Year (Class AA) in 2005 when he went 11-6 and led the league in ERA (2.61), complete games (3), and strikeouts (163). 

While he will not be the front-of-the-rotation starter the Red Sox once envisioned him, Lester could carve out a hell of a career as a fourth starter.  Boston’s circumstance obviously dictates Lester’s rotation spot since Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Clay Buchholz will be in BeanTown for years to come.

Speaking of Beckett, the Marlins wanted Lester in that deal, but Boston refused.  However, the Red Sox did dangle Lester in the deal for Alex Rodriguez that didn’t happen.

Speaking of Buchholz, he of course threw the previous MLB no-hitter last September 1st.  He is 23 and Lester is 24.

Lester’s 130 pitches last night was a career high, but the Red Sox let him continue for obvious reasons.  It was the highest number of pitches thrown in a no-hitter since Bud Smith’s 134 total in his 2001 gem (a span of seven not including Houston’s combined no-hitter versus the Yankees in 2003). 

On April 29th of this season, Lester threw 8 innings and allowed only one hit against the Toronto Blue Jays.  So Lester has the stuff and incredible makeup to be an effective Major League starter.  But with an offense like Boston’s and likely matching up against other teams’ back-end starters, Lester could win many MLB games.  He’s already 14-4 in his MLB career.   Compared to a 29-27 mark in his minor league days with a better ERA and WHIP.  One hundred fifty career MLB wins isn’t out of the question for Lester. 

It’s also worth noting that Jason Varitek has caught four no-hitters now (Lester, Buchholz, Derek Lowe, and Hideo Nomo).  Boston’s catcher and captain also has guided his franchise to two world championships and personally kicked A-Rod’s ass to jumpstart his squad in their 2004 title run.  These results are important in defining a position that is the most difficult to measure via statistics.

http://thebigleaguebeat.com/2008-al-east-preview/

It’s more of the usual in the AL East.  The Red Sox are good–real good.  So are the Yanks.  The Blue Jays are average.  Baltimore is rebuilding, making way for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, err…Rays to get out of the AL East cellar.  2004 was the only other year Tampa Bay finished higher than last.

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There is a conflict between Curt Schilling’s doctors and the Boston Red Sox’s doctors.  Schilling’s guy says surgery is the only option for the pitcher’s bad shoulder.  The Red Sox’s guy says strident rehabilitation will do the trick.  But how much does this conflict have to do with a medical evaluation?  Does Boston’s point of view have anything to do with the $8 million, one-year contract Schilling just signed for 2008?  Remember, Major League Baseball contracts are guaranteed.  Oh, and Boston has already begun looking into whether or not they can legally void Schilling’s contract.  You can read Schilling’s opinion on his shoulder, and just about everything else at: www.38pitches.com.