No other National League teams with a worse record than the Arizona Diamondbacks wanted to claim Adam Dunn.  It’s understandable that these clubs would not want to add the last two months of the $13 million Dunn will earn in 2008, but what hasn’t been mentioned is that Arizona received a quality addition to counter the surging Dodgers’ acquisition of Manny Ramirez.

Dunn strikes out a lot.  He plays sub-par defense.  But Dunn gets on base and hits for power.  At the time of the trade, he was in the top-30 of all Major League hitters in both on-base percentage (.373) and slugging percentage (.528).  Who cares that his batting average was .234 at the time of the trade?  He is getting out less this season than Ichiro Suzuki, who is hitting .308 but whose on-base percentage is .363.

In fact, Dunn is close to achieving an impressive feat.  For four consecutive seasons, he has hit over 40 homeruns and walked over 100 times.  With a month and a half to play in 2008, he has 32 homers and 83 walks.  In three of the last four years, Dunn has eclipsed 100 RBIs and 100 runs scored.

The Diamondbacks are second in the National League in strikeouts and have added a player who has struck out 124 times in 2008 in only 117 games.  Dunn led the National League in strikeouts from 2004-2006.  But Dunn isn’t like his new teammates.  Dunn immediately becomes the team leader in slugging percentage, second in on-base percentage (to Conor Jackson’s .388 mark), and leads the team in OPS.

  The Reds receive:  Dallas Buck and two players to be named later.

Dallas Buck is a 23-year-old right-handed starting pitcher who only 1-5 in starts between Class Low-A and Class High-A, but has a 3.55 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP.

Oh, those elusive players to be named later.  They’re always the wild card of any player.  In these situations clubs give their counterparts options between a few players and those clubs will wait a few months longer to concluce the evaluation process on the minor league players.  Except this time, at least one of the two (and possibly both) players to be named later is reportedly not a minor leaguer.  Well, they may be in the minor leagues now, but they are part of the 40-man, Major League roster.  They must clear waivers like other Major Leaguers, meaning the trade may be completed after the conclusion of this season. 

So it seems as if the trade will be completed by one of the players on the 40-man roster, but not one of the 25-players currently on the actual Major League team.  This list includes Max Scherzer and Micah Owings.  It’s highly unlikely that the D-Backs part ways with Scherzer, but if the Reds can lure Owings away, it would be very beneficial for their franchise.  Owings struggled so badly in 2008 that Arizona had to send him back to Triple-A, but he’ll only be 26 next season and could still be a very useful piece to a Major League club. 

This trade, like most, is about money.  Adam Dunn is a free agent after the end of 2008 and should command a pretty hefty salary in the open market.  Cincinnati felt they had to get something in return other than a compensation pick in next June’s draft, so they made the deal.  They could end up receiving a Major League-experienced pitcher in Micah Owings, a piece they need badly.  Maybe the Diamondbacks can convince Dunn to stay in Phoenix beyond 2008.  If so, they win this trade easily because Dunn will hit 40 homeruns and draw 100 walks for several more years.  If not, they still have a guy with left-handed power and patience that could push them past the Los Angeles Dodgers and into the 2008 playoffs.

  Several years ago, Hall of Fame writer Peter Gammons said, “there are a lot of 8-, 9-, and 10-year-old kids who don’t know how good Ken Griffey, Jr. was.”

Therein lies the tragedy of Ken Griffey, Jr.’s career.

Last night, Junior became the sixth player to ever hit 600 homeruns when he took Mark Hendrickson deep in the first inning of the Reds’ victory over the Florida Marlins.  Yet when we reflect on his illustrious career, the superlatives will be subtle and the questions will take center stage.  That question, of course, is, “what if?”.

The memory of Ken Griffey, Jr.’s first major injury is a vivid image in the minds of the baseball community.  On May 26, 1995, Orioles outfielder Kevin Bass drove a Randy Johnson pitch deep to right-centerfield and Junior made a specatcular play:  and broke his wrist in the process.

The Kid was a natural, hitting his first of 600 homeruns as a teenager and immediately becoming the face of Major League Baseball.  Posters featuring his backwards cap and smile were on a generation of kids’ bedroom walls.  Those kids mimicked his sweet left-handed swing and his popularity grew to where he even appeared in the movie “Little Big League”.

Junior saved baseball in the rainy town of Seattle, creating the excitement and subsequent revenue to convince the city to not only keep the Mariners, but to build Safeco Field.  That excitment began in the 1995 season when Griffey hit a homer and then scored the game-winning run in the 11th inning of game five of the ALDS versus the New York Yankees.

Ken Griffey, Jr. hit 16 homeruns and stole 16 bases in his rookie season, playing the entire year as a 19-year-old.  In 1990, he and his father homered in the same game, a moment that even today seems unfathomable.  That season, Junior won the first of ten consecutive Rawlings Gold Glove Awards.  That is the entire decade of the 1990s.  With Griffey’s combination of range, speed, arm strength, and instincts, he was more than likely the best defensive centerfielder since Willie Mays.  It wasn’t until his third MLB season that Griffey won his first Louisville Silver Slugger Award as a 21-year-old American League outfielder.  It was the first of seven Silver Sluggers in the 1990s for Junior.

But Ken Griffey, Jr. was supposed to be the one to hit 756 homeruns, not the anti-hero, Barry Bonds. 

Griffey’s career has become reminiscent of another great centerfield from an earlier generation. 

When people talk about the career of Mickey Mantle, they talk about the injuries, the women, and the booze, but the switch-hitting centerfielder is still a top 30 player to ever play baseball.  Although Bill James’ Historical Baseball Abstract was published in 1986, his point on Mantle continues to relevant.  In terms of career value for a centerfielder, James ranks Ty Cobb, Willie Mays, Joe DiMaggio, and Tris Speaker all ahead of Mantle.  But in absolute peak value, James writes that The Mick is the greatest centerfielder ever.

Similarly, Ken Griffey, Jr. may be the greatest player of his generation in terms of absolute peak value.  Look at his 1997 and 1998 seasons.  He hit 56 homeruns each year and drove in 147 runs in ‘97 and 146 runs in ‘98.  Those cookie cutter seasons in back-to-back years weren’t by a brawny first baseman, however.  They were by a player who also doubled as the best defensive centerfielder in the game.

Junior’s lone MVP season came in the 1997 campaign when he hit .304/.382/.646 including those 56 homers, but also 15 stolen bases and, of course, Gold Glove centerfield defense.

In reflecting on Ken Griffey, Jr.’s career, think about his staggering offensive prowess in the American League during the 1990s.  He finished top 10 in the American League in slugging percentage nine times.  Make it nine times also for total bases, extra base hits, and intentional walks that Griffey placed in the top 10 in the AL in the ’90s.  Eight times, he placed in the top-1o in on-base plus slugging (OPS) in this period.  Seven times he placed in runs, homeruns, and runs batted in. 

Remember also that one season would be added to all these totals had a broken wrist not taken two months from his 1995 season.

There it is again.   What if?

But wondering “what if” is a waste of time.  Ken Griffey, Jr.’s career is remarkable regardless.  He will never hit 700 homeruns, but do not forget that he is still one of the great talents the game has ever seen.

   All eyes in the baseball world have been on Jay Bruce since his Major League debut on Tuesday.  So far, Bruce has shown why Baseball America named him the 2007 Minor Leaguer of the Year and the top overall prospect leading into 2008.  In three games, he is 4 for 9 with two RBIs and two stolen bases.

Jay Bruce is a classic five-fool talent, but his makeup has been an impressive attribute since his much-anticipated promotion to the Show.

While playing for the Louisville Bats–Cincinnati’s Triple-A affiliate–Bruce never did post-game interviews at a podium with 50 microphones in his face.  Now he will have to deal with the pressure of constant scrutiny that comes with the territory of being a can’t-miss, franchise-saving prospect.  But it’s been so far, so good for Bruce as he went 3-3 with two walks and a steal in his MLB debut, showing off his tools and potential.

Jay Bruce was drafted 12th overall in the 2005 draft out of a Texas high school.  Again, that year’s draft may go down as the most talent-laden ever:  Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Jeff Clement, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Mike Pelfrey, and Cameron Maybin were all drafted ahead of Bruce. 

Bruce was raking at AAA before his callup, hitting .364/.393/.630 with 10 homeruns and 8 stolen bases.  In fact, it was pretty surprising that Bruce didn’t make the big league club out of spring training.  Instead the Reds opted for Corey Patterson whose 2008 line isn’t pretty:  he’s hitting .200 even with a .240 OBP and a .352 SLG.  He may soon be looking for new work.

While Bruce is a middle-of-the-order power lefty bat who also hits for average and is fast enough to steal bases with a center field glove and a right field arm, there are a few question marks about the five-tool talent’s future development, namely his strikeout rate.  Bruce had a staggering 80 extra base hits between three minor league levels in 2007, but with the power came many strikeouts.  He struck out 135 times last year and had already accumulated 45 whiffs in AAA so far in 2008.  But unlike a player like Jim Thome, who offsets his extremely high strikeout rates with very walk rates (12 seasons 100+ strikeouts, 9 seasons 100+ walks), Bruce only walked 47 times in 2007.  The year before he walked 44 times compared to 106 strikeouts in Class Low A baseball.

However, Bruce has walked four times in his three MLB games including the first plate appearance of his career, showing patience in an anxiety-riddled moment.  If Bruce can hit Major League pitching like the scouting reports suggest, the walks will come naturally as his reputation spreads and pitchers begin to shy away from the middle of the plate in favor of nibbling at the corners.  But more important than actually getting on base will be Bruce’s control of the strikezone, so that he hacks at a pitch to drive rather than a borderline pitcher’s pitch.

While three games mean nothing in the long term grind that baseball is, Bruce seems unaffected by the glitz of the Major Leagues so far.  Only the strikeout rate is a concern, but even that is of no consequence if his power remains.  Reggie Jackson struck out more times than anybody in Major League Baseball history, but he is a Hall of Famer nonetheless.

Things are looking up for the Reds.  They haven’t finished above .500 since 2000 and are currently in last place in the most-populous division in baseball.  But in the suspect National League Central, the Reds could turn the division upside down quickly.  It begins from within from the work of their scouting and development.  Now their franchise player, Jay Bruce, has arrived.

  Joey Votto hit three bombs off Chicago Cubs’ pitching in Wednesday’s 9-0 win. 

In fact, the Cincinnati Reds totaled seven homeruns as team.

Cincinnati’s ballpark is known for homeruns, but Votto’s career day wasn’t cheap.  After losing a hanging slider deep into the rightfield stands in his first at bat, Votto hit his final two homers to centerfield.  Also, he hit all three bombs off a different pitcher:  Jon Lieber, Sean Marshall, and Sean Gallagher were all victimized. 

Votto could have become the 16th player in MLB history to hit four homers in a game, but he grounded out in his final at bat.  Carlos Delgado is the last player to go deep four times in one contest, doing so on September 25, 2003.  Frank Thomas is the last player with a three-homer game, coming just last September 17th.

Maybe this is Joey Votto’s moment to propel him to the 2008 National League Rookie of the Year Award.  He is now leading MLB Rookies with seven homeruns.  Of course, the National League is filled with exciting rookie players.  Geovany Soto is probably leading the pack currently and has had a two-homer game of his own.  His teammate Kosuke Fukudome will be in this race until the end.  Jair Jurrjens is 4-2 with a 2.84 ERA.  Although he’s struggled lately, Johnny Cueto made quite a first impression.  But when will Jay Bruce get called up?  And what if Clayton Kershaw is called up this year? 

 Loading …

  Johnny Cueto made his Major League debut for the Cincinnati Reds on Thursday and absolutely dominated the Arizona Diamondbacks.  The 22-year-old Cueto threw 7 innings, allowing only a homerun in the 6th inning to Justin Upton, striking out 10, and walking none.  None of his 92 pitches came out of the stretch in his MLB debut. 

Cueto is a native of the famous Dominican town San Pedro de Macoris.  He is a short and slender right-hander, which of course isn’t the prototypical workhorse body that scouts oftentimes salivate over.  In a bit of a surprise, he made Cincinnati’s Opening Day roster over the likes of hot prospect Homer Bailey.  Scouts and Reds’ management were impressed with Cueto’s stuff and moxie.  Cueto’s stuff is evidenced by the 10 strikeouts of 22 batters faced, but what may be even more impressive is zero walks on the biggest stage of his rising baseball career. 

Cueto’s debut today establishes himself (along with Kosuke Fukudome–if he is a rookie) as the immediate front runner in the 2008 National League Rookie of the Year campaign.  In fact, it is the best pitching performance of this very young season.  Today’s effort would score 81 on Bill James’ Starting Pitcher Game Score calculation, the highest thus far in 2008.  For some perspective, the highest game score of 2007 was Erik Bedard’s 98 when he threw a complete game shutout against the Texas Rangers, striking out 15, walking none, and allowing only 2 hits.

UPDATE:  You might have guessed this one already, but upon further review of Cueto’s MLB debut, the announcers noted the fact he had a perfect game going and even flashed a list of rookies who have thrown no-hitters.  After a commercial break, Upton led off the 6th with a solo homer.  But hey, the announcers were working for an Arizona Diamonbacks station, so this ploy could have been a strategy to rally the DBacks’ bats.

A good college team could win the National League Central. Ok, that’s a joke, but this division was by far the weakest in the Majors in 2007. The Cubs won it last year with only 85 wins, and were quickly swept in the first round of the playoffs. They are the favorite to repeat as division champs in 2008, but the Brewers are young and talented. Many thought last season was the going to be the breakout year for Milwaukee, but they went 9-18 in August and the Cubs won the division. The Cardinals’ aging teams of the last decade have finally caught up to them. They won’t be formidable until Albert Pujols’ and Chris Carpenter’s aching elbows are soothed. The Astros have added Miguel Tejada and Jose Valverde and could make some noise in this division in 2008. The Reds will be exciting in 2008 because hot prospects Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, and Homer Bailey will all become regulars. Pittsburgh is just bad. Real bad.

Check out the teams:  UPDATE:  All of the 2008 outlooks for the NL Central teams are now posted. 

http://thebigleaguebeat.com/2008-nl-central-preview/

 Loading …

The Cincinnati Reds locked up their second baseman for four more years. The deal is worth $27 million, a good raise from the $407,500 Brandon Phillips made in 2007.  He won’t win a Silver Slugger award as long as Chase Utley is playing second base in the National League, but Phillips is finally reaching the potential of his once-elite prospect status. He built on a solid 2006 with an even better 2007. Too bad he plays in a middle-class market on neither coast. Get this little-publicized fact: Brandon Phillips made the 30-30 club in 2007. Expect the 26-year-old Phillips to continue to prove that he is one of the best second basemen in MLB in 2008.